In 2011, a number of Arab countries went through what was called "The Arab Spring". They changed their ruling regimes who they thought were oppressing them. The effects of this "revolution" are still debated among political analysts as thousands have died in the attempt to reform the status quo whereas, in reality, democracy as defined in the Western world is still absent from those countries.
A very notable example is Libya, ruled by ruthless colonel Muammar Gadhaffi for many years. After the death of Gadhaffi, the country slipped into chaos as its various tribes started fighting each other for domination and for the control of its rich oil reserves.
Today, Libya has a UN recognized government led by Fayez al-Sarraj, whereas in the eastern part, the country is run by Khalifa Haftar, an army general promoted to Field Marshal.
In fact, however, the divisions of Libya do not end here. There are many countries who support Sarraj or Haftar. It is said that Sarraj has the support of Turkey, Qatar and Italy, whereas the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Russia and Egypt (the United States too, but not so strongly), support Marshal Haftar.
One could say that this looks like an inter-Arab or inter-Muslim conflict that ought to keep the West out. However, the oil fields of the country and its geostrategic location have made the conflict an international and perhaps multinational confrontation.
Turkey signed a memorandum with Libya, trying to set a foot in the Mediterranean in order to take advantage of possible natural gas deposits deep in its seabed. However, Greece, Egypt and Cyprus quickly responded by calling the agreement invalid and contrary to International Maritime Law.
Turkey's Erdogan is said to be planning drills along the geographical "corridor" he and Sarraj agreed upon, angering Greece which has stated that Crete has not only continental shelf but also exclusive economic zone that extends up to 300 miles from its shores, as dictated by international law.
If Erdogan sends drilling ships accompanied by warships, he risks open war with Greece with no guaranteed results of his victory. In fact, no navy or airforce can attempt hostilities in such close proximity to a heavily fortified island like Crete which has S-300 batteries and many fighter jets.
On the other hand, it has been established that Russia has already its own mercenaries on the Libyan ground, fighting on the side of Marshal Haftar. Turkey has sent its own Turkmen mercenaries and a lot of military equipment.
Egypt has stepped up its efforts to assist Haftar as well. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are doing the same.
France has expressed its willingness to assist Greece should a maritime crisis arise. The United States have been ambivalent but recent news says that ultimately they will help Haftar.
It is more than evident that we are already talking about an international conflict which is, at the moment, taking place through proxy forces. Careful measures must be taken, however, so as any attempts to destabilize the entire region will be thwarted.
The United States ought to have its say and prevent unlawful claims in the Mediterranean as well as stabilize Libya with the assistance of the West, in order for its civil war to end. In this way, extremist forces will be forced to cancel their plans and a possible escalation to a multinational war will be stopped.
Σχόλια
Δημοσίευση σχολίου